The government is expected to raise petrol prices by Rs. 4.75 per litre in the upcoming fuel price review, while the price of high-speed diesel is likely to stay nearly unchanged, provided no additional petroleum levy is imposed.
According to fresh estimates prepared by the oil industry, petrol prices are expected to increase in the next pricing cycle, whereas diesel may witness only a slight adjustment if there are no exchange rate changes before the official announcement.
Petrol’s ex-refinery price is likely to increase from Rs270.03 per litre to Rs274.77 per litre, marking a rise of nearly Rs4.75 per litre. The increase is mainly linked to higher international Free on Board prices, which climbed from $139.03 per barrel to $143.01 per barrel during the review period.
A small reduction in premiums and incidental charges provided limited relief but failed to balance the overall increase. In addition, the removal of a previous Pakistan State Oil adjustment of Rs1.41 per litre further contributed to the rise in petrol prices.
Meanwhile, high-speed diesel is projected to record only a marginal increase of Rs0.20 per litre, taking the price from Rs334.74 per litre to Rs334.93 per litre. Although international Free on Board prices for diesel jumped from $160.41 per barrel to $172.99 per barrel, the impact was mostly offset by a sharp cut in customs duty and incidental charges.
Industry figures showed that customs duty dropped by more than Rs20 per litre, helping keep diesel prices largely stable despite higher international rates.
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The exchange rate remained mostly steady during the review period at around Rs278.9 against the US dollar, resulting in minimal impact on final fuel prices.
Industry officials said petrol consumers are expected to feel the effect of rising global gasoline prices, while diesel users may receive some relief due to policy measures aimed at reducing the impact of fluctuations in the international market.
They added that the final consumer prices will depend on the government’s decisions regarding taxes, levies, and any last-minute exchange rate adjustments before the official notification is issued.