ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is expected to see near-normal rains and higher-than-usual temperatures in June 2025, according to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
The forecast is shaped by ongoing neutral conditions in both the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
Given these factors, central and southern Pakistan are likely to receive near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall.
However, areas in the north, including northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and parts of Kashmir, may experience normal to below-average rainfall.
Most parts of Punjab, Balochistan, southeastern and western Sindh, as well as central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, are expected to see near-normal rainfall.
Meanwhile, regions like southern Punjab, northern and southwestern Sindh, and northeastern Balochistan might receive more rain than usual.
On the other hand, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and nearby areas in Kashmir could receive less rainfall.
Temperatures across the country are likely to remain above normal, particularly in Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, and northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Possible impacts: Despite a generally stable rainfall outlook, isolated extreme weather events such as heavy downpours, gusty winds, hailstorms, or even tornadoes could occur. Intense rainfall could trigger flash floods in hilly regions like Koh-e-Suleman, AJK, and KP, and cause urban flooding in big cities.
These rains will help recharge groundwater and fill reservoirs. However, strong winds and hailstorms may pose risks to seasonal crops, fruits, and vegetables. Atmospheric conditions may also favour the development of heat waves in the southern plains.
Higher temperatures in mountainous areas are likely to accelerate snowmelt, increasing water flow into reservoirs, but may also raise the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) in Gilgit-Baltistan.