Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Gold price falls by Rs3,800 per tola after Israel-Iran ceasefire

Gold prices in Pakistan saw a significant drop on Tuesday, reflecting a similar trend in international markets where the precious metal lost nearly 2% in value, falling to its lowest level in over two weeks.

This global decline followed a calming of geopolitical tensions, especially after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which reduced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

Locally, the price of 24-karat gold plunged by Rs3,800 per tola, bringing it down to Rs354,365, as reported by the All Pakistan Sarafa Gems and Jewellers Association (APSGJA). Likewise, the price of 10 grams of gold dropped by Rs3,258, settling at Rs303,810.

Just a day earlier, gold had only fallen slightly, losing Rs300 per tola to close at Rs358,165.

“There had been talk of a correction for several days and with tensions easing, the metal is now gradually retreating,” explained Adnan Agar, Director at Interactive Commodities. He pointed out that gold prices have been declining as global uncertainties fade.

On Tuesday, gold fluctuated between a high of $3,357 and a low of $3,303 per ounce, staying close to its bottom range.

According to Agar, the critical support zone lies between $3,300 and $3,290. “A breach below this level could push the market down towards $3,200,” he noted.

He also suggested that if the geopolitical landscape remains calm, gold could continue its slide, potentially dipping as low as $3,000 or even $2,800 in the coming days.

At the same time, the Pakistani rupee made a small gain against the U.S. dollar in the inter-bank market. The local currency closed at 283.77 against the dollar on Tuesday, appreciating by 10 paisa from the previous day’s closing rate of 283.87, a rise of 0.04%.

Globally, the U.S. dollar weakened while the Australian and New Zealand dollars gained strength, as news of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel lifted investor confidence and sparked a wave of optimism across global markets.

Meanwhile, fresh figures from the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) showed that the country’s broad money supply (M2) grew by 0.9% on a week-to-week basis, reaching Rs38.4 trillion as of June 13, 2025.

This growth was mainly fuelled by a 1% increase in bank deposits, which rose to Rs27.5 trillion. Currency in circulation (CIC) also went up by 0.7%, reaching Rs10.9 trillion.

Looking at the bigger picture, broad money expanded by 3.2% compared to the previous month, and by 11.6% over the past year. Since the start of 2025, M2 has increased by 7.9%.

Cash in circulation jumped by 5.3% month-on-month and surged by 17.4% year-on-year, likely due to heightened cash needs following the Eid holidays. Total deposits grew by 2.3% month-on-month and 9.6% year-on-year.

However, other deposits held with the central bank saw a decline, falling by 3.2% week-on-week and dropping 13% from the previous month. On an annual basis, these deposits recorded a sharp 30.6% decrease.