Pakistan is likely to experience below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures during December 2025.
Synoptic Situation:
Global climate indicators show that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), currently in a negative phase, is expected to shift to a neutral state by the end of December. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains in a neutral phase and is projected to continue in the same phase during the month.
Monthly Rainfall Outlook:
Most parts of Pakistan are expected to receive below-normal rainfall in December 2025. The largest deficits are likely in northern Punjab, Balochistan, much of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan. Southern Punjab, Sindh, and adjacent areas of Balochistan are likely to see near-normal rainfall.
Monthly Temperature Outlook:
Mean temperatures are forecast to remain above normal nationwide, with the highest departures expected in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and the coastal belt of Balochistan.
Impacts:
Below-normal rainfall may reduce water availability for irrigation in rain-fed areas, affecting germination and early growth of Rabi crops. Slightly higher temperatures could extend the dengue season in regions where mosquito breeding is common, such as Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan, requiring vigilance from health authorities for vector control.
Water storage in reservoirs may be affected due to the rainfall deficit, particularly in areas dependent on December rainfall for early water supply. Authorities should monitor levels closely and prepare for potential shortages if dry conditions persist.
Air quality could decline, leading to smog formation in the plains, which poses health risks to sensitive groups, especially children and the elderly, and could worsen respiratory illnesses such as asthma.
Cool nights and below-normal rainfall may also increase fog formation, particularly in central and eastern Punjab, adjoining areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and upper Sindh. Reduced visibility due to fog could disrupt highway travel and cause delays at major roads and airports, especially during late nights and early mornings.