Pakistan is likely to experience below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures during November 2025.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) stated that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a marginally negative phase throughout the month.
Similarly, the negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is predicted to shift to a neutral phase by the end of November.
Rainfall for November 2025:
Under these conditions, most parts of the country are expected to see below-normal rainfall, with the largest deficits in northern Punjab, upper and central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan.
Parts of Sindh and neighboring areas of Balochistan are expected to receive near-normal rainfall.
Temperatures for November 2025:
Mean temperatures are forecast to be above normal across the country, with the highest departures over eastern Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and northern Punjab.
In contrast, northwestern Balochistan and eastern Punjab may experience below-normal temperatures.
Impacts:
Dry conditions and slightly higher temperatures are likely to benefit rice harvesting, reducing the risk of crop damage from rainfall.
Below-normal rainfall may lower water availability in rain-fed agricultural areas, potentially affecting the sowing of Rabi season crops.
The prevailing weather could prolong the dengue season, especially in regions with higher mosquito breeding such as southern Punjab, Sindh, and Balochistan. Health authorities may need to intensify vector control measures.
Reduced rainfall may also impact reservoir levels. Water management authorities should monitor supplies closely and prepare for potential shortages if dry conditions continue.
Air quality may decline, leading to smog formation in the plains, which can pose health risks to vulnerable groups, including children and the elderly, and worsen respiratory conditions such as asthma.
Cool nights and dry weather are expected to encourage fog and smog, particularly in the plains of Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. This could reduce visibility, disrupt highway travel, and cause delays at major roads and airports, especially during early morning hours.