ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has predicted a fresh spell of widespread rain, wind, and thundershowers across much of the country in the coming days, with monsoon activity expected to intensify from August 17.
According to the Met Office, monsoon currents from the Arabian Sea are currently affecting the upper parts of the country, while moist currents from the Bay of Bengal are likely to strengthen in the middle of the week. A westerly wave is also expected to become more active from August 17.
Under these conditions, rain, wind, and thundershowers with scattered heavy downpours are forecast in Islamabad, Kashmir, upper Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (K-P), and Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) from August 14 to 17.
From August 18 to 21, the wet spell will continue in northern areas such as Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Poonch, and the districts of G-B.
Widespread rains are also expected across K-P during this period, with heavy to very heavy falls likely in Dir, Swat, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Peshawar, and Mardan.
Southern districts, including Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Waziristan, Tank, and Dera Ismail Khan, will also see showers with occasional heavy spells.
Punjab, including Islamabad/Rawalpindi, Murree, Galliyat, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot, and Faisalabad, is expected to receive heavy rain from August 18 to 21, with scattered showers in the southern districts.
In Balochistan, Barkhan, Zhob, Khuzdar, Gwadar, and Panjgur are likely to receive rain between August 18 and 22. Showers are also expected in Sindh districts such as Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Larkana, and Tharparkar during this time.
GLOF alert
Given the forecast, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) of K-P has issued a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) alert, warning of possible flooding in glaciated areas.
Heavy and prolonged rainfall could trigger glacial lake bursts in vulnerable districts such as Upper and Lower Chitral, Dir, Swat, and Upper Kohistan.
The PDMA has also warned of potential landslides and flash floods in local streams and nullahs, advising people to stay away from water channels and avoid crossing fast-flowing streams.
The National Highway Authority (NHA), Frontier Works Organisation (FWO), and the Communication and Works Department have been instructed to remain on standby for road clearance and other emergency tasks.
Awareness campaigns are being carried out in at-risk areas, while the PDMA’s Emergency Operation Centre remains active, with citizens encouraged to use helpline 1700 for assistance.
Flood and landslide risk
The PMD has cautioned that heavy rains could cause flash floods in K-P, Murree, Galliyat, northeast Punjab, and Kashmir between August 15 and 21.
Hill torrents may also hit Dera Ghazi Khan and eastern Balochistan from August 18 to 21. Urban flooding is likely in low-lying areas of Islamabad/Rawalpindi, Gujranwala, Lahore, Sialkot, Peshawar, and Nowshera during this period.
Landslides and mudslides could block roads in hilly areas of K-P, G-B, Murree, Galliyat, and Kashmir, while strong winds, lightning, and heavy downpours may damage weak structures, power lines, billboards, vehicles, and solar panels.
“All concerned are advised to remain alert and take necessary measures to avoid any untoward situation,” the PMD said, urging the public, travellers, and tourists to avoid unnecessary visits to vulnerable areas and to stay updated on weather reports.
Death toll rises
Since late June, at least 312 people, including 142 children, have died and 740 others have been injured in flash floods and heavy rains, according to updated figures from the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA).
The dead include 113 men, 57 women, and 142 children. Among the injured are 243 children, 209 women, and 288 men. The NDMA said the rains and flooding, which began on June 26, have caused widespread devastation across the country.