ISLAMABAD: Pakistan is expected to experience below-normal rainfall and higher-than-usual temperatures throughout October 2025, according to the latest weather outlook.
Rainfall patterns during September showed considerable variation across regions. Sindh and coastal Balochistan received significantly above-average rain, while the rest of the country saw normal to below-normal precipitation.
Heavy rains between September 7 and 10 caused urban and flash flooding across Sindh. Meanwhile, temperatures stayed near or above normal in most regions, with the sharpest increase observed in Gilgit-Baltistan.
Global climate indicators show that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a slightly negative phase and is likely to persist through October.
Similarly, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to stay in its negative phase during the month.
Most parts of Pakistan are expected to receive near-normal to below-normal rainfall. The northern regions, including Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, and northern Punjab, are likely to see the lowest rainfall, while southern areas such as Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab are forecast to receive rainfall closer to normal levels.
Temperatures across the country are expected to remain higher than usual, with the greatest increase predicted in eastern Gilgit-Baltistan.
Above-normal temperatures are expected in Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and northern Punjab, while parts of northwestern Balochistan could experience slightly below-normal temperatures.
The combination of warm and humid weather may encourage dengue mosquito breeding in many areas. In upper glaciated regions, higher temperatures could increase the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).
With the monsoon retreating, river flows are expected to decrease, potentially affecting irrigation water supplies.
Smog formation may intensify in the plains due to declining air quality, posing health risks to children and the elderly. Additionally, the heat may strain livestock health and reduce fodder availability in certain regions.